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Blog Entry# 4691255
Posted: Aug 20 2020 (03:47)

3 Responses
Last Response: Aug 20 2020 (03:50)
1954 views
3

Aug 20 2020 (03:47)  
shailshekhara
shailshekhara   35255 blog posts
Group Recipients: *covid-19
Entry# 4691255              
𝐈𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐚 𝐖𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐮𝐬 𝐖𝐚𝐫? 𝐓𝐡𝐞 '𝐑' 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫
The 'R', or the Reproduction Rate, measures how infectious the coronavirus is - put simply, it is a measure of how many people are infected by one infected person.
The coronavirus attacks different regions of a country with differing intensity.
Using the 'R' rate, we look at which states in India are winning or losing
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more...
the Indo-Coronavirus war.
The 'R', or the Reproduction Rate, measures how infectious the coronavirus is - put simply, it is a measure of how many people are infected by one infected person. If 'R' is 2.0, it indicates that one person who is infected with COVID-19 will on average infect another two people. Those two persons will each go on to infect another two persons - and so the infection spreads exponentially in society resulting in a pandemic.
It is crucially important to ensure 'R' falls below 1.0 (that is, one infected person spreads the virus to fewer than one other person). Only when the R falls below 1.0 will the pandemic slowly fade away.
The all-India average 'R" indicates that contrary to the widely-held view that the virus is out of control in India, the situation is indeed improving. However, there is no room for complacency - the war is still on against the Coronavirus. Beware of new spikes!
Source
In our focus on 20 large states, three broad categories emerge.

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1177 views
2

Aug 20 2020 (03:49)
shailshekhara
shailshekhara   35255 blog posts
Group Recipients: *covid-19
Re# 4691255-1              
𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝟏: States that have so far been successful in the war against the pandemic where the 'R' rate shows a declining trend.
Ten of the larger states in India have shown encouraging signs - with the 'R' showing a declining trend (see 'R' graphs below).
The 'R' has in fact dropped below 1.0 - the first target for all nations - in Gujarat, Jharkhand and J&K. But the battle is not over. As the graph for 'R' in Telangana shows, 'R' fell below 1.0 for a while (as in the third week
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more...
of July) and then spiked again - Telangana needs a huge policy effort once again to bring the 'R' back down to under 1.0 to ensure that the spread of the virus slows down.
There are some worrying signs in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh that the encouraging downward trend of 'R' may have halted - urgent measures are needed to ensure that the earlier momentum is not lost.

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1330 views
2

Aug 20 2020 (03:49)
shailshekhara
shailshekhara   35255 blog posts
Group Recipients: *covid-19
Re# 4691255-2              
𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝟐: States which have so far been successful in the war against the pandemic but where there may be signs of a possible new spike:
In six of the larger states of India, there are some indicators of a new spike or a surge in the spread of the coronavirus.
Perhaps the biggest worries are Assam and Chhattisgarh - both states had brought 'R' down to under 1.0, but in the last fortnight, the level of 'R' has risen to unacceptably high levels above 1.30.
Delhi
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more...
has been the most successful state in 'flattening the curve' of new cases - but there is a significant new concern that the trend in 'R' is revealing. While the level of 'R' in Delhi is still low, there has been a rise in 'R' from 0.75 to 1.05 in the span of just two weeks. This change in 'R' is a message to the people and the government that this is not the time to get 'lockdown fatigue'.
Among the most successful states in combating the coronavirus has been Tamil Nadu (a state where the authorities need to be praised for using only RT-PCR tests and not the less reliable Rapid Antigen Test). But, like Delhi, there has been a worrying uptick in R recently - and while the level of R is still around 1.0, the rising trend in R is disturbing.

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1219 views
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Aug 20 2020 (03:50)
shailshekhara
shailshekhara   35255 blog posts
Group Recipients: *covid-19
Re# 4691255-3              
𝐂𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐲 𝟑: States which have been the least successful in tackling the pandemic so far - where the 'R' factor is still high.
Perhaps the two most worrying states in India are Bihar - where the virus does not appear to be under control at all with the 'R' rate unacceptably high - and Punjab, which two months ago had somewhat controlled the virus , but the current 'R' rate indicates that the virus could spread again rapidly.
West Bengal is not as serious, it only just falls into a Category 3 state
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more...
because there appears to be a second surge which has taken 'R' levels to where major policy action is called for.
India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh, has had a consistently high 'R' and the virus has been spreading rapidly. Fortunately there has been a recent downturn in 'R' but the level remains high.

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